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Electric Vehicle Uptake Forecasts for Transgrid
Energeia’s intelligence and data services were engaged by TransGrid (New South Wales’ largest Transmission Network Service Provider) to develop robust and scenario-driven forecasts of EV uptake, energy consumption, and load profile impacts for their annual planning report.
Background
TransGrid, New South Wales’ largest Transmission Network Service Provider (TNSP), publishes a Transmission Annual Planning Report (TAPR) in October of each year, which includes electric vehicle (EV) uptake and charging forecasts as key components. To inform this section of the report, TransGrid required a robust and scenario-driven forecast from a consultant.
TransGrid engaged Energeia’s intelligence and data services to develop these scenario-driven forecasts of EVs, including plug in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), energy consumption, and half-hourly load profile impacts on the days of maximum and minimum system demand. Energeia also developed fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) uptake forecasts to inform Transgrid’s strategic view regarding the additional energy consumption anticipated by hydrogen fuelled vehicles. The residential load profiles utilised also included vehicle to grid (V2G) impacts as part of a forecasting improvement for the 2023 iteration of the TAPR.
EV Load Profile - How much energy will the grid need to supply?
Electric Vehicle Forecasts
The growth of the EV market is increasingly impacting customer electricity consumption behaviour and peak demand trends. The EV market is expected to become one of the key drivers of maximum and minimum demand over the next 20 years in New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Energeia’s scenario-driven forecasts demonstrated that EV sales will continue to grow over the forecasting period in NSW and ACT. Annual energy consumption from EV charging was found to subsequently increase over the same period.
Energeia’s EV uptake forecast was used to inform TransGrids’ final report, and Energeia’s EV charging forecast can be found in the forecasting assumptions chapter (pg. 86) of TransGrids’ 2023 TAPR.
For more information or to discuss your specific needs regarding EV data forcasting and modelling, please request a meeting with our team.
For more detailed information regarding key challenges facing electric vehicle uptake, please see Energeia’s Power Session webinars and associated materials.
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