Enhancing Demand Forecasting for Power and Water Corporation (PWC)

Power and Water Corporation (PWC), the electricity network provider for the Northern Territory (NT), required an updated and more precise demand forecasting methodology. As NT’s energy landscape evolves with increasing rooftop solar adoption, electric vehicle (EV) uptake, and changing industrial loads, PWC needed a demand forecasting model that could account for these dynamic factors. Accurate forecasts are essential for network planning, regulatory compliance, and investment decisions. PWC engaged Energeia to enhance its demand forecasting approach and align it with best practice methodologies. 

Challenges in Northern Territory’s Energy Landscape

PWC operates in a region experiencing rapid changes in energy demand patterns. With the continued rise of distributed energy resources (DER) such as rooftop solar and battery storage, minimum demand trends are shifting, presenting new challenges for grid stability. Additionally, the electrification of transport and entry of large businesses into the region is expected to introduce new peak loads. To effectively plan network investments and meet regulatory requirements, PWC required an advanced forecasting framework capable of capturing these emerging trends over a 10-year horizon. 

Energeia’s Advanced Forecasting Methodology

Energeia developed an improved demand forecasting methodology tailored to PWC’s specific requirements, leveraging its proprietary demand forecasting tool to enhance accuracy and efficiency. The approach included refining weather normalization techniques, enhancing regression models, and incorporating evolving demand drivers such as solar PV uptake, EV charging behaviour, and industrial spot loads. By utilizing its forecasting tool, Energeia implemented a multi-factor regression model, validated forecasts against historical data, and performed scenario analyses to provide PWC with probability-based (P10, P50, and P90) demand forecasts. The study also introduced an enhanced validation process that reconciled system-level demand projections with zone substation and distribution feeder-level forecasts, ensuring consistency across different network levels. 

Energeia’s approach significantly improved the accuracy of PWC’s demand forecasts, enabling better alignment with real-world trends. The updated methodology identified key drivers behind shifting demand patterns, including the impact of behind-the-meter solar exports on minimum demand and the projected influence of EV charging on peak demand. The analysis revealed that maximum demand in key regions is expected to grow steadily, with peak periods shifting later in the evening due to increased solar PV penetration. Conversely, minimum demand is projected to decline, particularly during midday hours, highlighting the growing impact of rooftop solar exports on the grid. Additionally, the study emphasized the importance of accounting for large industrial load variations, which can significantly influence network investment decisions. 

Strengthening PWC’s Network Planning and Regulatory Compliance

The improved forecasting methodology has provided PWC with a more reliable foundation for regulatory submissions, tariff design, and long-term network investment planning. By incorporating evolving demand drivers and implementing a more rigorous validation process, Energeia’s model equips PWC with the insights needed to optimize infrastructure investments and enhance network reliability. 

Integration into Regulatory and Planning Processes

PWC integrated Energeia’s forecasting improvements into its Transmission and Distribution Annual Planning Report (TDAPR) and broader regulatory planning processes. The results and methodology have previously been reviewed and approved by the Australian Energy Regulator.  

A More Sophisticated Demand Forecasting Approach

Energeia’s expertise in demand forecasting has enabled PWC to develop a more sophisticated and accurate approach to predicting future electricity demand. By leveraging advanced statistical modelling, scenario analysis, and evolving demand insights, Energeia has helped PWC strengthen its regulatory compliance, investment planning, and network management strategies.